Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-12-28 20.833853 21.993911 23.214330 24.599145 26.133346 27.788517 29.719399
2026-01-04 18.765485 20.336040 22.067139 24.134862 26.562258 29.353819 32.856091
2026-01-11 17.939322 19.791498 21.900191 24.513793 27.718225 31.592822 36.755559
2026-01-18 17.221485 19.263944 21.648974 24.694302 28.565053 33.451611 40.325553
2026-01-25 16.375147 18.501933 21.032025 24.335306 28.651648 34.289780 42.582463
2026-02-01 15.632845 17.808884 20.437570 23.934246 28.612635 34.909131 44.551777
2026-02-08 14.766969 16.914187 19.534674 23.064593 27.864538 34.460840 44.859346
2026-02-15 14.561346 16.824637 19.632641 23.493752 28.887144 36.566130 49.300354
2026-02-22 14.292204 16.636191 19.585516 23.713946 29.619510 38.302190 53.404505
2026-03-01 13.728586 16.045059 18.982457 23.135276 29.156106 38.173601 54.308416
2026-03-08 12.862069 15.035718 17.793200 21.693823 27.353290 35.838449 51.045388
2026-03-15 12.543402 14.727987 17.522908 21.520018 27.406942 36.419849 53.111187
2026-03-22 12.270370 14.516331 17.431873 21.681591 28.108135 38.325991 58.445493
2026-03-29 11.807021 14.042009 16.973173 21.304032 27.980025 38.896836 61.438312
2026-04-05 11.623313 13.926674 16.991710 21.609521 28.930191 41.416645 69.197099
2026-04-12 11.402538 13.748886 16.910227 21.754516 29.627401 43.582811 76.949747
2026-04-19 11.062649 13.393698 16.559902 21.465884 29.572132 44.323821 81.457859
2026-04-26 10.736259 13.044653 16.202191 21.142660 29.426634 44.863919 85.645577
2026-05-03 10.315489 12.551742 15.619503 20.438992 28.569981 43.875573 85.168167
2026-05-10 10.230797 12.522770 15.704420 20.786722 29.583161 46.863409 98.022693
2026-05-17 10.102468 12.426843 15.685564 20.964771 30.305347 49.362269 110.981095
2026-05-24 9.802934 12.079335 15.281963 20.496328 29.795460 49.032722 113.373781
2026-05-31 9.320470 11.462169 14.463333 19.321935 27.908983 45.395349 101.678846